#billions vs $700

[trexalicious]

[marshmallowgoop]

DCMK Blu-rays

A list of Detective Conan and Magic Kaito content with physical HD releases.

This won't be comprehensive by any means; I'm going to be focusing on Japanese, German, and United States releases because these are the ones that I own and am most familiar with. I believe that many of the films are also available on Blu-ray in several countries, dubbed in several languages, but I don't have much concrete knowledge about that at this moment. Please feel free to add any information!

That said, the main thing to know about Detective Conan Blu-rays is that... they kind of don't really exist. The television series is (mainly, more on this later) released on DVD only in Japan, usually with the equivalent of four episodes per disc, sold at 4,620 yen each. They're grouped in "Parts," with up to 10 Volumes per Part, and the next release, on June 23rd, will be Part 31, Volume 3, containing episodes 1007, 1008, 1010, and 1013.

A handful of episodes are released on Blu-ray via collections in Japan; there are the Treasured Selections and Akai Family TV Selections. But with a series running over 1,000 episodes, it really is just a handful of episodes available in these collections.

Treasured Selections

With the Treasured Selections, you can get 67 episodes on Blu-ray:

1: "The Roller Coaster Murder Case"

2: "The Kidnapping of the Company President's Daughter"

54: "The Game Company Murder Case"

128: "The Black Organization: One Billion Yen Robbery Case"

129: "The Mysterious New Student"

176-178: "Re-Encounter with the Black Organization"

226-227: "Battle Game Trap"

230-231: "Mysterious Passenger"

258-259: "The Man From Chicago"

271-272: "Hide, Hurry Up, and Abbreviate It"

277-278: "English Teacher vs. Great Western Detective"

286-288: "Shinichi in New York"

307-308: "The Remains of Voiceless Testimony"

309-311: "Contact with the Black Organization"

338-339: "Four Porsches"

340-341: "The Hidden Secret in the Toilet"

343-344: "Convenience Store Trap"

345: "The Confrontation with the Black Organization: The Coincidence of the Two Enemies on a Night with a Full Moon"

346-347: "Look for the Mark on the Buttocks"

361-362: "Teitan High School Ghost Story"

425: "Black Impact! The Moment the Black Organization Reaches Out."

427-428: "Super Secret School Zone"

429-430: "The Point of No Return"

462-465: "The Shadow of the Black Organization"

484-485: "The Whereabouts of the Black Picture"

491-504: "Red and Black Crash"

507-508: "Blind Spot of the Karaoke Shop"

509-511: "Conan VS Double Code Mystery"

However, anything before 286 is not in HD; these are all traditionally animated episodes that were not especially remastered for these releases:

Episodes 286 and beyond (from Treasured Selection 6 to 18) are digitally animated, and these Blu-rays are more properly HD:

Akai Family TV Selections

With the Akai Family TV Selections, you can get 33 episodes on Blu-ray:

563-564: "The Detective Squad vs. The Band of Robbers"

578-581: "A Red Omen That Summons Danger"

675-676: "Not Even a Millimeter of Forgiveness"

699-700: "Shadow Closes in on Ai's Secret"

701-704: "Pitch Black Mystery Express Train"

724-725: "Thief Kid and the Blushed Mermaid"

779-783: "The Scarlet Return"

785-786: "Taiko Meijin's Match of Love"

836-837: "The Unfriendly Girls Band"

861-862: "Just Like a 17 Year Old Crime Scene"

863-864: "The Spirit Detective's Murder"

866-867: "The Traitor's Stage"

881-882: "The Magician of the Waves"

Other Japanese Blu-rays

Beyond these, the TV-original specials Episodes 804-805 ("Conan and Ebizo's Kabuki Juhachiban Mystery") and Episodes 965-968 ("Kaiju Gomera VS Kamen Yaiba"), plus the canon Episodes 927-928 ("The Scarlet School Trip"), are also available on Blu-ray.

Finally, special edition Blu-rays for Movies 17-25 include a second disc containing the movie's tie-in anime episode... but that second disc is likely a DVD, speaking as someone who doesn't own any of these but does own the Japanese special edition Blu-rays for Movies 14 through 16, where the second discs are, indeed, DVDs.

German Blu-rays

Outside of Japan, Germany is currently releasing boxed sets of the Detective Conan series starting from Episode 1. At this time, these are the only physical releases of the remastered footage (which make a big difference), and they include Japanese and German audio (but any German-dubbed songs are omitted). Three boxes are available now, covering Episodes 1 to 96 (or 102 with the international numbering); a fourth box is set to be released on May 19th, covering up until Episode 122 (or 129 with the international numbering).

Do note that these releases edit the name boxes in a way that can't be turned off, however.

Films, Specials, and Magic Kaito

In Japan, there are Blu-ray releases for:

Films 1-25

Both Lupin crossovers

The Disappearance of Conan Edogawa: The Two Worst Days in History

Episode One: The Great Detective Turned Small

Magic Kaito and Magic Kaito 1412

In Germany, all of the same content is available on Blu-ray. There's also a Blu-ray release for The Scarlet Alibi, and I believe that they're the only ones with a physical HD release of Gosho Aoyama's Collection of Short Stories as well.

In the United States, there are Blu-ray releases for:

Films 19-23

Both Lupin crossovers

Episode One: The Great Detective Turned Small

As far as I'm aware, there are no HD releases anywhere of the OVAs. They're available on DVD in Japan, either separately or via four "Secret File" compilations (though these only cover OVAs 1-9).

There also aren't any HD releases of the Magic/Bonus files, but DVDs are included with the Japanese special edition versions of Movies 12-16. They're also available for individual purchase in Japan as well.

TV Specials 1, 2, and 4 (with 3 being the Lupin special, 5 being The Disappearance of Conan Edogawa, and 6 being Episode One) seem to be DVD only, too. Actually, I'm not sure if TV Special 1,"Time Travel of the Silver Sky," is available on disc at all? But TV Special 2, "Black History," is said to be included with the Japanese special edition DVD of the second live-action drama special, and TV Special 4, "Fugitive: Kogoro Mori," is included on the Part 24, Volume 7 DVD.

TV Special 7, "Love Story at Police Headquarters ~Wedding Eve~," might be included on Blu-ray in Japan with the special edition of Movie 25, but I can't confirm if that disc is a Blu-ray or DVD right now (and the same goes for The Scarlet Alibi, included with the special edition of Movie 24 in Japan).

The eight VHS-only Shogakukan Illustrated Encyclopedia Series tapes are obviously not available in HD, either.

Tl;dr?

So, in short, combining releases and eliminating the not-remastered Treasured Selections, you can find 186 episodes on Blu-ray right now (with more on the way with the fourth Detektiv Conan box). You can also get all of the films and Magic Kaito series, plus a few specials, in HD.

And I think that's all I've got! Feel free to add more information if you know any! I am desperate to physically own more HD DCMK content.

EDIT: I've done some more digging, and from what I can tell, starting with Movie 24, the Japanese special edition Blu-rays for the films changed the bonus second disc from a DVD to a Blu-ray instead. This means that Episode 1,002, "The Beika City Shopping Center Garbage Bin Mystery," included with the special edition of Movie 24, as well as Episode 1,039, "The Flying Jack-o'-lantern," included with the special edition of Movie 25, are available on Blu-ray, too. So, a more accurate number of episodes that have been released on Blu-ray (in HD) at this time is actually 188. Further, this confirms that The Scarlet Alibi and TV Special 7 are also available on Blu-ray in Japan.

Additionally, though I have provided a couple of links throughout this post, the Detective Conan World wiki deserves a bigger shout out than I initially gave; their "Collectibles" page, and particularly their "Japanese Blu-ray" article, were a huge help in compiling the information laid out here. Many, many thanks to the contributors.

And while I'm here, for those interested in English-language releases specifically, Magic's Detective Agency is a fantastically detailed resource for every DVD released by FUNimation (Volumes, Season Sets, and Films). They're not HD releases, true, but at the time, they're the only physical releases of any episodes and the first six films in English.

Finally, I also discovered that a fifth Detektiv Conan box is set to be released on July 21st! This should mean that remastered episodes up until 145 (or 155 with the international numbering) will be available on Blu-ray, and it bodes well for these releases to continue. Hopefully, there will be physical releases of the remastered footage in other countries, too!

[lifebuoyjournals]

Another case of lofty goals and lack of tangible support

At COP15 last year, countries agreed to a biodiversity deal that includes protecting and restoring 30% of the world's land and seas by 2030. As part of the deal, it was agreed that wealthy nations will contribute US$30bil/year to ensure that low to middle income countries (LMICs) are also able to achieve the target.

During COP15, LMICs that are biodiversity-rich called for a new independent fund, because the current funding manager, called Global Environment Facility (GEF), is too slow to distribute funds and inaccessible. But high income countries disagreed and decided that the new fund should still be managed by GEF.

There are other concerns too, e.g. upfront commitment of money (LMICs) vs setting up the trust first then discussing budget later. Also, the current proposed fund (which high income countries still arent willing to commit upfront to) is $200 million, whereas research estimated show that to achieve the goal, $700 billion is required.

Countries are expected to meet and review this proposal in these few days, but there seems to be still no tangible commitment on the horizon

[memingursa]

None of yall have been desperate enough to try the lottery and know that you either accept a pay out paid in annual installments for 30 years (The full amount of 2 billion which would be taxed but not down to 400 million probably) vs immediately taking what is available on hand (probably like 700 million) and that 700 million taxed lead to 400 million. Not that it’s still not bullshit but this is readily available information.

[arfacapital]

Barclays Outlook 2025 – Time to Deliver

Barclays' Outlook 2025 focuses on a year of transition, as global economies navigate the complexities of post-pandemic recovery, geopolitical uncertainties, and accelerating technological disruptions. Key themes include adapting to economic realignment, harnessing opportunities in AI and sustainable investing, and managing risks from geopolitical tensions and inflation. Key Themes and Economic Insights 1. Global Macro Overview - United States: - GDP growth is projected at 2.1% for 2025, supported by fiscal stimulus and rate cuts, but headwinds include waning consumer strength and tariff uncertainties. - Inflation is forecast at 2.3%, with the Federal Reserve likely cutting rates further. - Eurozone: - Growth remains subdued at 0.7%, with recovery led by Spain, while Germany and France face challenges due to sluggish manufacturing and political instability. - The ECB is expected to continue rate cuts, with inflation dropping below 2%. - China: - Growth slows to 4% amid demographic headwinds and a troubled property market. Stimulus measures focus on recapitalizing banks and supporting local governments. - Trade tensions with the U.S. and demographic pressures further complicate the outlook. - United Kingdom: - GDP growth estimated at 1.2%, as inflation recedes. Fiscal pressures and higher unemployment remain concerns, though gilt markets and export-driven equities offer investment opportunities.

2. Equities - Broad Market Trends: - Equity markets have been buoyed by strong performance in AI and mega-cap tech stocks but face valuation challenges. - Sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare present defensive opportunities. - Regional Insights: - U.S. equities expected to deliver moderate returns as earnings growth replaces multiple expansion. - European equities offer select opportunities despite overall weaker growth. - Thematic Investing: - AI and automation drive investment narratives, though concerns about sustainability, energy use, and broader economic impact persist.

3. Fixed Income - Yield Dynamics: - Global yields are likely past their peak, with divergence expected as U.S. growth remains robust while Europe and the UK face weaker growth. - Tight credit spreads suggest limited upside, making securitized credit and BB-rated bonds attractive for carry opportunities. - Emerging Market Debt: - Emerging markets present opportunities for diversification, though China’s property market issues pose default risks in Asia. 4. Artificial Intelligence - Productivity vs. Constraints: - While AI adoption accelerates, challenges such as energy demands, training costs, and societal integration slow progress. - Estimates for AI-driven GDP growth range from modest (1.1%) to transformative (100%) over the next decade, depending on scalability and adoption. - Sectoral Impact: - AI’s implementation is uneven across industries, with healthcare and finance requiring stringent oversight due to data sensitivity and accuracy concerns.

5. ESG and Sustainable Investing - Key ESG Factors for 2025: - Environmental: Biodiversity, carbon emissions, and water management take center stage as regulatory and investor focus intensifies. - Social: Human capital development, labor management, and data privacy are critical for sustainable growth. - Governance: Corporate transparency, anti-corruption measures, and board diversity remain vital. - Nature and Biodiversity: - With $700 billion annual funding gaps for biodiversity preservation, companies face financial risks from reliance on ecosystems. Investment Strategies - Equity Markets: - Focus on high-quality, resilient stocks with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. - Defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples are favored, with selective exposure to value cyclicals. - Fixed Income: - Prioritize securitized credit and short-dated BB-rated bonds for higher carry yields. - Diversify with emerging market debt, emphasizing issuer selection to manage risks. - AI Opportunities: - Invest in task-specific AI applications in areas with clear productivity gains rather than speculative frontier models. - Sustainability: - Align portfolios with ESG principles, emphasizing climate resilience and biodiversity-focused investments. Conclusion Barclays' Outlook 2025 emphasizes a selective, diversified approach to navigate a complex global environment. By balancing pro-growth opportunities with defensive strategies, investors can capture growth while mitigating risks. AI, sustainability, and emerging market dynamics present long-term opportunities for forward-looking portfolios. Read the full article

[the-firebird69]

Rock Climber Vs Thomas Inch Dumbbell? #shorts #workout #viral

It's really annoying this is damned annoying so the retards get people who are strong to lift stuff to show their strong and to go after them they did this to stan today is in his glory and it's going to get worse but really is better and the guy is going to see these people fall and it's not really helping but it seems like it they will try and recover and that's going to be hell this is only 150 lb and the guy looks real muscular and he can't do it like at all now he moved it it lifted a little but really my son can lift that up without too much trouble and when he is bigger probably in a month he can lift up 200 pounds and almost curl it cuz you can curl 150 with one arm and they want to see it but it says you've done it before he says it's true right now it's pretty strong and says but his chest isn't cuz I haven't worked it and it's pulling a muscle because of potassium and these people working it and working it and working it and for some reason this not flushing and he knows why it's the air and it's not helping there's a lot of people are sick from it and it's going to change pretty soon Tommy F will become I'm just scrutiny and it happens and people start going after the ships and that would be Trump and bja and speaking of which right now half of their fleet is heated up and did so in the last 20 minutes and it's about $700 billion and that's half the whole thing almost well it's up to about 2.5 trillion it was a 2.3 trillion this will bring it underneath two trillion and they might start thinking about it but still they're going to keep you assholes we're moving into position they're hitting probably 3% in an hour up to now of ships in my turn to aim and momentarily they will try and break you away and they will be be set

Thor Freya

I have your word I won't be harmed and our son is on the line and says I'm helping if we have assistance and I get that I feel better

Hera

[esigners]

Choose the Right Platform to Market Your Business: Facebook vs. Instagram vs. LinkedIn

In today’s digital age, social media platforms have become indispensable tools for businesses to market their products and services effectively. With millions of users worldwide, platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn offer unique opportunities to reach target audiences and engage with potential customers. However, each platform has its own strengths and limitations, making it essential for businesses to understand which one aligns best with their marketing objectives. In this article, we’ll explore the key differences between Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn to help you determine the right platform to market your business.

Facebook: The All-Purpose Platform Facebook remains one of the most popular social media platforms globally, boasting over 2.8 billion monthly active users. Its diverse user base spans across different age groups, making it suitable for businesses targeting a wide range of demographics. Facebook offers various marketing tools, including Pages, Groups, and Ads, allowing businesses to create a strong online presence and engage with their audience effectively.

Advantages:

Wide Reach: With billions of users, Facebook provides extensive reach, enabling businesses to connect with potential customers worldwide.

Targeted Advertising: Facebook’s robust advertising platform allows businesses to target specific demographics, interests, and behaviors, ensuring that their ads reach the most relevant audience.

Engagement Features: Features like comments, likes, and shares facilitate interaction with customers, helping businesses build relationships and loyalty.

Limitations:

 Declining Organic Reach: Over the years, Facebook’s algorithm changes have resulted in decreased organic reach for business Pages, necessitating investment in paid advertising to achieve significant visibility.

Saturation: With numerous businesses vying for users’ attention, standing out on Facebook requires strategic content and advertising efforts.

Demographic Shifts: While Facebook still appeals to a broad demographic, younger audiences are increasingly gravitating towards other platforms like Instagram and TikTok.

Instagram: Visual Storytelling for Brands

Instagram, owned by Facebook, has rapidly grown into one of the most influential social media platforms, particularly among younger demographics. Focused on visual content, Instagram allows businesses to showcase their products or services through photos and videos, making it ideal for brands with visually appealing offerings.

Advantages:

Visual Appeal: Instagram’s emphasis on high-quality visual content enables businesses to create compelling narratives and showcase their brand identity effectively.

Engagement: The platform’s highly engaged user base actively interacts with content through likes, comments, and shares, fostering community engagement and brand loyalty.

Influencer Marketing: Instagram’s influencer ecosystem provides opportunities for businesses to collaborate with influencers and reach niche audiences authentically.

Limitations:

Limited Linking Options: Unlike Facebook, Instagram has limited options for including clickable links in posts, making it challenging to drive traffic directly to external websites.

Algorithm Changes: Similar to Facebook, Instagram’s algorithm changes can impact organic reach, necessitating a balance between organic content and paid advertising.

Content Saturation: As with any popular platform, competition for visibility is high, requiring businesses to consistently deliver high-quality content to stand out.

LinkedIn: Professional Networking and B2B Marketing

LinkedIn stands out as the premier platform for professional networking, making it an excellent choice for businesses targeting B2B audiences or seeking to establish thought leadership within their industry. With over 700 million users, LinkedIn offers a platform for sharing industry insights, connecting with decision-makers, and generating leads.

Advantages:

Professional Audience: LinkedIn’s user base consists primarily of professionals and businesses, making it an ideal platform for B2B marketing and networking.

Thought Leadership: Publishing long-form content, participating in industry discussions, and sharing insights can help businesses establish themselves as thought leaders in their respective fields.

Lead Generation: LinkedIn’s advanced targeting options enable businesses to reach decision-makers and influencers directly, facilitating lead generation and business development efforts.

Limitations:

Niche Audience: While LinkedIn’s professional focus is advantageous for B2B marketing, businesses targeting consumer audiences may find the platform less effective.

Content Tone: Content on LinkedIn tends to be more formal and professional, requiring businesses to adapt their messaging and tone accordingly.

Limited Organic Reach: Similar to other platforms, organic reach on LinkedIn can be limited, necessitating a combination of organic content and paid advertising to maximize visibility.

Choosing the right social media platform to market your business depends on various factors, including your target audience, marketing objectives, and content strategy. While Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn offer unique opportunities for businesses to connect with their audience and promote their brand, it’s essential to evaluate each platform’s strengths and limitations in the context of your specific business goals. By understanding the distinct advantages and challenges of each platform, you can develop a comprehensive social media marketing strategy that effectively engages your target audience and drives business growth.

[ailtrahq]

The crypto market is up today and Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Cardano (ADA) and numerous altcoins rallied to start the month of October. Crypto and equities markets responded positively to the United States’ temporary aversion to a government shutdown, bringing the total crypto market cap up $3.7 billion to $1.1 trillion on Oct. 2.Crypto market 1-day price action. Source: Coin360Let’s examine three of the major factors influencing today’s crypto market rally.Uptober is off to a solid startOctober has historically been celebrated as “Uptober” due to the positive returns in the crypto market. Bitcoin and crypto market prices rallied 5% to over $28,500. The seasonality of Bitcoin’s returns in October has remained positive, only failing to achieve gains 3 times in the month. With such a strong history, this makes October statistically one of the strongest months for Bitcoin price gains.Bitcoin returns by month. Source: Look Into BitcoinA strong October is much needed after the third quarter of 2023 equated to $700 million in losses due to a variety of hacks. Crypto liquidations rule the dayThe crypto market rally started on Oct. 1 and fueled a wave of short position liquidations across the market, totaling over $92 million in 24-hours. Bitcoin short liquidations lead the way with the largest single liquidation of $8.39 million in one transaction on the Huobi exchange. In total, $51.5 million in Bitcoin shorts have been liquidated in 24-hours.Total crypto liquidations in 1-day. Source: CoinglassDespite the short-seller losing streak, 50.5% of the futures market remains short. With the ratio remaining skewed short, a potential opportunity for a short-squeeze could happen and lead to further price upside.Bitcoin short vs. long ratio. Source: CoinglassMacro factors could benefit the crypto market The U.S. government averting a shutdown on Sept. 30, may have helped the initial Oct. 1 crypto price pump which quickly wiped out $70 million in shorts. Despite the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) refusing to approve a Bitcoin ETF and their continued war on the crypto market, large institutions remain interested in the space.Such interest has led VanEck and Bitwise to both launch Ethereum ETFs on Oct. 2. The Bitwise ETF will launch on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the VankEck Ether ETF will launch on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). While Bitcoin and altcoins still have overhanging risk events that could impact the price, the growing institutional interest is improving sentiment across the market. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index highlights the improved sentiment, noting an 11-point increase over the last month. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meOverall, crypto markets are likely to continue to experience price volatility. While the positive start to October is providing a nice short-term bump in crypto prices, the market’s reaction to any new enforcement actions or an economic recession will be the true determinant of the direction the market chooses to take. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

[denimbex1986]

'The two movies have fought it out at the box office, but Barbie and Oppenheimer's battle looks set to continue into the 2023 awards season.

Both Barbie and Oppenheimer, or "Barbenheimer" when they join forces, have been the height of entertainment this summer—though the fans of Indiana Jones, Mission: Impossible, and Sound of Freedom would beg to differ.

In reality, it's been no close contest at the worldwide box office, as Greta Gerwig's Barbie has blown away the competition, including Oppenheimer, by raking in over $1 billion. Christopher Nolan's three-hour epic Oppenheimer has performed admirably still, taking in over $560 million, according to Box Office Mojo, powered by IMDb.

Both movies have earned millions at the box office, but which one will have a more successful awards season?

While Barbie is the clear winner financially, who will claim more accolades come awards season? Who is more likely to win the most prestigious honor of Best Picture at the 2024 Academy Awards?

The race for the Oscars this year seems reminiscent of the 2010 Academy Awards, when The Hurt Locker, a gritty war movie that took in less than $50 million, beat the record-breaking 3D adventure Avatar.

Movie producer Laura Pellegrini predicts it to be a tight race between the two blockbusters.

"As people make their predictions and cast their votes, there is no doubt that both films could garner a slew of nominations," the vice president of Rosso Films International told Newsweek. "One competitive category will be Best Director between two very different, yet equally phenomenal filmmakers."

Pellegrini said: "Greta Gerwig created her impressive Barbie-verse from scratch and told a story that was not only entertaining but unexpectedly moving; who would've thought that behind a plastic veneer was a myriad of human emotions? Then there's Christopher Nolan, whose mind-bending direction and towering visual mastery have culminated in what many call his magnum opus with Oppenheimer.

"It will be a tight race, but as it stands, it looks like Nolan could very well garner his first golden statue for Best Director," Pellegrini said.

The betting odds seem to agree with this assertion so far, with Oppenheimer being the favorite to beat out Barbie in almost every category.

What Are the Current Odds for the 2024 Oscars?

Best Picture

Oppenheimer +150 Killers of the Flower Moon +400 Past Lives +800 Maestro +1000 Anatomy of a Fall +1100 Dune: Part Two +1200 Lee +1200 The Color Purple +1400 The Killer +1600 Barbie +1600

In the Best Picture category, Oppenheimer is currently the odds-on favorite to take home the trophy, with Barbie in contention but seemingly unlikely to win. Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon, an Apple TV+ movie that will launch in theaters on October 6, is also ranking high in the Oscars race. As many as 10 movies are often nominated for Best Picture which means Barbie could squeak a nomination, but a win is very unlikely.

Best Director

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) +205 Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) +300 Greta Gerwig (Barbie) +450 Bradley Cooper (Maestro) +500 Ben Affleck (Air) +600

While both Nolan and Gerwig are highlighted again in this category, once again Nolan is the strong favorite to take home the gong, which would be his first Academy Award. Martin Scorsese, who has won many before, is also in with a shout.

Best Actor

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) +110 Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) +225 Colman Domingo (Rustin or The Color Purple) +500 Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon) +650 Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play) +700

Oppenheimer's leading man, Irish actor Cillian Murphy, is the bookmaker's favorite to win the Best Actor prize at the 2024 Oscars. Ryan Gosling isn't being suggested as a winner for his impressive Barbie performance, though there might be more hype for him in the Best Supporting Actor category. Leonardo DiCaprio could also win his second Best Actor Oscar if his performance in Killers of the Flower Moon impresses voters.

Best Actress

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) +215 Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) +300 Carey Mulligan (Maestro) +350 Margot Robbie (Barbie) +500 Annette Benning (Nyad) +675

Margot Robbie will surely be included in the conversation for her role as Stereotypical Barbie in Barbie, but Oppenheimer actress Emily Blunt is currently the favorite. Carey Mulligan may also impress in Bradley Cooper's Maestro movie, which doesn't launch until later in 2023.

All of these odds listed are from VegasInsider.com, and the odds vary between betting companies. Generally, the majority have Oppenheimer leading the nominations list with Barbie expected to pick up a couple of nominations but no obvious wins.

The 2024 Academy Award nominations won't be announced until early 2024, with the winners announced during the ceremony, likely in March 2024. We're still a long way off so the current odds are based on what has already been released, and what movies there is currently a buzz around amongst industry insiders. A performance or movie could still emerge and shock everyone between now and then.'

[gatekeeper-watchman]

Our Defense Budget

As I have commented in the past relative to our Department of Defense, their immense responsibility to the security of our country and the American people notwithstanding, they do not have an accounting system, i.e. a set of books, integrated with our national system of accounting that are auditable. In short, their books don't balance.

 When Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense during the administration of George W. Bush (You remember Dubya) entered office, he promised to correct this problem. We soon entered the war in Iraq, and his promise was forgotten.

I think this condition is a disgrace to the people of our country. We have huge transnational corporations in this country (they may be even bigger than our whole government), and their accounts are integrated, they are able to balance their books, and they can account for every dollar they receive and every dollar they spend. There is no reason our government can't do the same except they don't want to.

 Solving this problem they won’t be able to lie, cheat, and steal and/or hide what they do from the American people without getting caught. In conjunction with this think the Military Industrial Complex. As long as they can hide the truth, the American people are uninformed and unable to fulfill their Constitutional responsibilities in the electoral process.

Our country has the largest military budget in the whole world and, yet, they want more. As I speak, their requested budget this year is approximately $700 billion, just over three quarter of a trillion dollars, and they still claim they don't have enough money. They want more and they want to take it out of our Social Security and Medicare. If you don't believe me, just listen to Representative Paul Ryan, our illustrious Speaker of the House of Representatives, on the evening news. As usual, we fiddle as Rome burns. This phenomena is what economists term “guns vs. butter”. I submit to you that if a government doesn’t provide for the needs of its people, they may not have a people to defend.

So as not to overburden you with my thoughts, let me refer you to those of others. For your convenience, listed below are a few articles relating to this subject:

Pentagon’s Failure to Audit Contracts Wastes Billions

Pentagon buries evidence of $125 billion in bureaucratic …

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/pentagon-buries-evidence-of-125-billion-in-bureaucratic-waste/2016/12/05/e0668c76-9af6-11e6-a0ed-ab0774c1eaa5_story.html?utm_term=.5a1f121743ed

Audit: Pentagon Cannot Account for $6.5 Trillion Dollars Is Taxpayer Money ttps://www.mintpressnews.com/audit-pentagon-cannot-account-6-5-trillion-dollars-taxpayer-money/219246/ Fake News? I don’t think so. There is much more. It’s easy to Google. Study for yourself and see what a sick state our nation is in; and, you know? There’s absolutely no sense in it.

Steven P. Miller @ParkermillerQ, CEO and Founder of Gatekeeper-Watchman International Groups Sunday, April 23, 2023 Jacksonville, Florida., Duval County, USA. Instagram: steven_parker_miller_1956, Twitter: @GatekeeperWatchman1, @ParkermillerQ, https://twitter.com/StevenPMiller6 Tumblr: https://www.tumblr.com/blog/gatekeeperwatchman, https://www.tumblr.com/gatekeeper-watchman Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/StevenParkerMillerQ #GWIG, #GWIN, #GWINGO, #Ephraim1, #IAM, #Sparkermiller,#Eldermiller1981

[tanoraqui]

Tanoraqui’s Coherent Theory of Finwëan Relative Ages (Years of the Trees Only)

Click Here to see the complete timeline of birth years and other notable events, including reasoning for various non-canon dates, and be sure to visit the second tab for a breakdown of Elf vs. Man aging rates and foundational headcanons about how time works and a few key familial relationships! Also below the cut.

Note on graph: ”as Men would Reckon” meaning, if you looked at that elf’s face and watched them behave for a bit, how old would you say they are if they were a human.

MORE CHARTS!:

Time Headcanon:

Tolkien's calculation of roughly 10 Sun Years to 1 Tree Year is correct, but time passes more slowly [closer to the Trees/in Valinor in general/close to the Valar themselves] [take your pick], or at least it seems to; same difference because time is fake, especially for immortals. This is called "Valinorian Temporal Reduction" (VTR) and it shakes out to about 1/5 the speed of Sun Years, or 1 Tree Year in Valinor = 2 Sun Years. NB: this did NOT effect Elves left in Middle Earth, which is why the Moriquendi population has swelled greatly in proportion to the Calaquendi by the time the Noldor Exiles arrive.

Aging Headcanon:

Somewhere around looking 30-35ish, Elves really hit that "ageless beauty" where they look young and ancient at once, and stay there. Some get there faster, or seem to age into 40s or even 50s, due to greater stress in life (common in those who stay longer in Middle Earth) This may or may not alleviate with rest; Elves, too, can be "old souls." Presenting as older is also common in elves with children, grandchildren, etc (due to personal sense of maturity/responsibility).

In fact, in Middle Earth, certainly in First Age Middle Earth, a 600-year-old Elf probably looks and acts/feels solidly 35, if not 40, though it's still plateauing there. The increased aging rate is almost entirely from age 100 onward - childhood aging (to mortal "18") is still about the same no matter what stressors are about. That is, emotional maturity can be affected, but the hröa's aging isn't any more than a Man's would be.

Note that by all this logic of year counts and aging, Finwë - who I think wasn't one of the original 144 Elves but was probably the quickly coming 2nd or 3rd gen - was about 800-860 (sun) years old (700-800 ME years + 72 VTR), putting him in Mannish mid to late 30s at Fëanor's birth. He probably picked up the equivalent of a year or two from then until his death.

Key Finwëan Familial Headcanons the Shaped the Birth Years Headcanons (no particular order): 

Finarfin and Earwen also married young, even younger than Fëanor and Nerdanel (ELOPED, in fact)

Fëanor and Nerdanel have kids whenever they get particularly horny over creation, with no regard for anything or anyone else

Maedhros is slightly older than Finarfin, but this is the only Finwean grandchild/child mix

No children were conceived out of competition or spite, except maybe great-grandchildren

Orodreth is a great-grandchild, son of Angrod and Eldalote

Orodreth was a mature enough adult in FA 102 that leaving him in charge of Tol Sirion was reasonable

It's traditional in Middle Earth to have elf kids at the same time as other elf kids. Slightly less common in Valinor, but still common.

Apprenticeship standardly starts at E!15-16, Curufinwës all started at E!14. (I know in my heart that the Noldor have guilds, though I don't think "journeyman" is what they'd call that rank - journeying prob. wouldn't have been as much of a thing?)

Again, check out the full timeline here! Yes, it was significantly faster (and more fun) to make a chart myself with colored pencils than to enter a billion values into Excel, especially given that there’s no actual formula for this Man/Elf age conversion. I think it got lost with everyone mixed together, but Fëanorians are in red shades, Fingolfinians in blues, and Finarfinians in yellows (more or less).

[ericvick]

Tesla Stock May Gain Momentum After $1.5 Billion Bitcoin Purchase: Analyst

Bitcoin surged Monday as Tesla (TSLA) announced it would buy $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency after founder Elon Musk has voiced his support of the cryptocurrency in recent weeks. Tesla stock rose.

X

The luxury electric car company said it will also accept Bitcoin as a form of payment in the near future, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the Bitcoin purchase, which will serve as an alternative reserve asset, “could put more momentum into shares of Tesla as more investors start to value the company’s bitcoin/crypto exposure as part of the overall valuation.”

The announcement comes as Musk has been tweeting about bitcoin and Dogecoin, a joke currency making fun of bitcoin and others.

Musk added the hashtag bitcoin to his Twitter profile, then said last week that Bitcoin was “on the verge of getting broad acceptance”  .

“I do at this point think bitcoin is a good thing, and I am a supporter of bitcoin,” Musk said during a Clubhouse chat.

In December, Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy (MSTR), which went on its own bitcoin buying spree last year, suggested Musk convert Tesla’s balance sheet to bitcoin from dollars. Musk asked if large transactions were possible.

IBD Live: A New Tool For Daily Stock Market Analysis

Bitcoin Price, Tesla Stock 

After falling back down to $30,000 in recent weeks, Bitcoin prices hit a new high of $44,900 following the news before giving up some gains. But by 4 p.m. ET, Bitcoin traded near $42,000, vs. about $39,000 before the Tesla news.

Among Bitcoin stocks, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which tracks Bitcoin price movements, surged 21%. PayPal (PAYL) added 4.7% and Square (SQ) rallied 8.15%. Marathon Patent Group (MARA) soared 42% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) shot up 40%.

Tesla stock, which had already soared more than 700% last year, rose 1.3% to 863.42 on the stock market today.

In October, PayPal launched a service that lets customers to buy, hold and sell Bitcoin from their PayPal account. It also is making it available as a funding source for purchases at its merchants worldwide.

Also in October, Square announced the purchase of $50 million in Bitcoin, saying it has the potential to become more ubiquitous in the future. The move came after its Cash App began allowing Bitcoin trades in 2018.

Other companies have joined the cryptocurrency trend recently, bringing it to mainstream investors.

Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance purchased $100 million in Bitcoin for its general investment fund. Visa (V) will offer a credit card that lets users earn money back in the form of Bitcoin.

Follow Gillian Rich on Twitter for investing news and more

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Bitcoin, Blockchain And Cryptocurrency News

Is Tesla Stock A Buy After A Giant Run And Transformative, Robust Year?

[heliolendingau]

How Investing in Cryptocurrencies Holds Up Against Traditional Investments

The cryptocurrency market is growing rapidly, with the largest cryptos in particular having spent much of the summer and fall rallying. According to an article on CoinDesk, the crypto market cap has surged to a record $2.7 trillion, tripling the $770 billion cap from the beginning of the year. Bitcoin (BTC) recently reached a fresh all-time high of $66,000, while Ethereum (ETH) climbed to a five-month high of more than $4,200.

All of this is leading corporations of all kinds to invest in cryptocurrencies on the simple grounds that the cryptos have outperformed traditional assets and varying indices. In our article ‘The Ultimate Beginner’s Guide to Investing and Trading Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies’, we discussed how investing in cryptocurrency can lead to significant gains.

CRYPTO VS. STOCKS

Both cryptocurrencies and stocks have good and bad days. For instance, as of the writing the European stock market is facing weak trading over Asia-Pacific jitters. The pan-European Stoxx 700 recently closed just below the flatline due to concerns over the Chinese property sector. These are specific examples that have affected markets of late. But more generally, market volatility, government regulations, and other sources of uncertainty can regularly lead to losses for even the most experienced and careful investors. That said, stocks also come with a long history that makes it easier for investors to recognize trends and predict future movements. Stock markets are also well regulated and widely traded, which further sets them apart from decentralized cryptocurrency assets. However, the crypto market is catching up as its capitalization increases and also regulation will be put in place. The proposed MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets) framework of the EU is a recent example.

CRYPTO VS. BONDS

A bond is a loan from an individual to a company or a government. When an investor buys a bond, the entity that sold the bond is in debt to that person. For a certain period of time, the investor will get interest (like say 3% p.a.) on the amount lent out, and eventually he or she will receive the entire amount in return. The only major risk with bonds is that an investor won’t receive any interest payments (or even the principal amount) if the borrower goes bankrupt or defaults for any other reason. Additionally, bonds can fail to generate returns that keep pace with inflation. The value of issued bonds often erodes when inflation rises. By contrast, cryptocurrencies are untethered to wider economic disruptions, and cannot be affected by any entity’s failure to maintain a deal – except that hackers might steal crypto left on an exchange. But in fact, crypto tends to profit from rising inflation as it is regarded a hedge against inflation. And moving your crypto to your own wallet will keep you safe.

CRYPTO VS. FOREX

Foreign exchange of global currencies (or forex) offers unmatched liquidity compared to crypto, or any other market for that matter. But value in this particular market stems from the economic conditions and fluctuations of the countries behind the currencies. This is why investors pay close attention to the changes in major currency pairs during times of high volatility. The trade volatility charts on FXCM depict what this sort of tracking looks like. They essentially depict bid and ask prices for major pairs such as the EUR/USD and USD/GBP, but do so in such a way as to highlight the pairs exhibiting the most movement. While this is a helpful way to visualize and trade forex though, the need for volatility tracking highlights a key difference between forex and cryptocurrency in and of itself. Forex traders need to seek out volatility if they’re to find much short-term potential for gains; crypto markets are extraordinarily volatile nearly all the time. That makes them less stable, but also means it’s easier for investors to spot potential opportunities for swift earnings.

CRYPTO VS. GOLD

Based on a recent gold market report from Reuters, gold prices have extended gains of late due to a softer dollar. With U.S. treasury yields pushing higher over inflation concerns, gold trading has remained in a range between $1,720 and $1,820 — making it a stable, liquid investment choice. These kinds of conditions are behind the “safe-haven asset” label that is often applied to gold. Some have begun to assign this label to cryptocurrencies as well, largely on the grounds that it they provide a “haven” during times of spurring inflation like we have been observing in fall 2021. Generally speaking though, crypto is far more volatile. The other key difference, meanwhile, is that gold is subject to import taxes and is far less portable. Investors need to spend more money protecting stashes of physical gold (even if only indirectly) than securing crypto wallets.

CONCLUSION

Overall, investing in crypto depends on your risk tolerance and portfolio objectives. If you want to diversify away from traditional investments, digital money is a good choice because it isn’t tied to a specific fiat currency, country, or financial market. That said, like any investable asset, cryptos still come with risks that need to be managed carefully. Timing the crypto market’s major ups and downs is key. This is where Crypto Captain can help you.

For More Information: https://heliolending.com/

[defconprime]

TREKMATCH! # 700 - DS9's "Sons of Mogh" vs 1998's Can't Hardly Wait

CAN'T HARDLY WAIT

At one last high school graduation party a dude decides to give a love letter to his crush, a girl he's never even had one single conversation with. Meanwhile a bullied nerd (we know he's a nerd because he likes Star Wars, a billion dollar franchise even then) plans to drug and sexually assault the guy who bullied him by making him sit in pudding. It's dated for many reasons (an ongoing string of homophobic jokes that even 1998 was too late for par example), but it's kinda sweet, and the soundtrack has three songs by Third Eye Blind AND Smashmouth!

GRADE: C+

STAR TREK: DEEP SPACE NINE - "Sons of Mogh"

Because of the whole hostility situation between the Federation and Klingons the House of Mogh gets discredited, so Worf's brother shows up at DS9 to get ritually murdered because of dishonor. Well who does not like that is one Captain Benjamin L Sisko, that's who! Anyway they compromise by erasing Kurn's memory and giving him a new identity. Hope they undid that at the end of the season when the war ends! Also can't believe I've done 700 of these nonsenses.

GRADE: C-

Victory to Can'tHardly Wait, so Trek is up 351-349!

[the-firebird69]

Watch "4 Stroke vs 2 Stroke vs Electric Comparison / What Do YOU Ride?!? / Motocross Dirt bike!" on YouTube

They're ridiculous of bikes are so high and it looks like idiots he has up in his tippy toes and her son says tippy tippy tippy tippy toe and just a little song He's very embarrassed he almost killed himself said what do I do so did you design one that has a lower seat like the magician he said that's terrific so there's about 700 million fat heads by tomorrow morning he said I can't stand this anymore so he's looking around trying to find one he can't and it says gas had one no that's not right so Chinese bike and it's the hawk 250 and he looked at it and it said you're right about something that goes down a little and so he started to design one and figured out how and did not drop the motor and we saw how he did it and we have one like it it works okay but really you guys need them here you're dinky this is hell so dumb you won't make one so he's looking for a brand name and Hera was thinking about it and her son decided to go talk to him and he said I know you guys are and I don't want to work with you you can come up with a design and sell the other bikes this is I don't want to even though you can make them and and he said what if we set up the factory for you and have your employees build them out here but just use the brand it said why because it's going to sell the other ones and he said it's not your brand though the same company with a different brand so he started laughing and said will I get any money out of it and all the sudden he said this what are you going to help with and said they can send raw materials and said you going to deal so they made an agreement and he's going to make the bike he's got several sizes and it goes up to obnoxious but not really really high up there. You saw pictures of Will and Bill get on the bike and they had trouble too they couldn't stand it anymore I saw you in the gravel and started laughing and said this is terrible that's that guy idiot gravel. Now there's a lot of stuff going on but he this is a decent deal it's not the greatest but it's a it's the company name but it's a different brand name and we're sending stuff so he couldn't get anything otherwise no one can so it's going it's going on and you guys will have bikes and Chinese bikes are selling so he's making his little more quality and it won't be massively cheap but be less than a regular bike right in the crease and the Chinese bike sold like $700 billion yesterday and their biggest day in the past few years has been 100 billion and that was 2 weeks ago right now they're selling so many they don't know how to keep up with it today so far they sold 1.7 trillion all over the world though but this is going to catch on

Thor Freya

Just want to go zooming around without getting exhausted which is not bad but we'll see what goes on

Hera yes I called Tortugans

[billehrman]

Markets Hate Uncertainty

Markets Hate Uncertainty

There are many questions out there today: when will the Delta variant peak; will opening reaccelerate; will shortages end; will supply line issues abate; will inflationary pressures ease; will the Fed begin tapering; will Congress pass an infrastructure bill and raise the debt limit, and when and if will Federal Chairman Powell be reappointed. That’s quite a lot of uncertainty, and there’s more to factor in.  The successful investor must formulate an opinion on each. That is why each week, we believe the greatest value we can bring you is to discuss issues and what is happening overseas, to help you develop your investment outlook.

After taking a top-down global economic, financial, and political view, we then take a bottom-up approach analyzing industries/companies searching for the best investment opportunities. Our approach is analytical and systemic. We attempt to take emotion out of the decision as best, which is not easy at times, we can especially if our conclusions point to going against the grain. We invest with a 12 to 24-month time frame while the market is dominated by day traders who rely on charts and momentum, which creates unusual opportunities for us at times. Several long-term investable trends are apparent today, such a digitalization, the cloud, the web, security, EV, going green, 5G, and infrastructure spending, but patience is necessary as the rewards come over a few years, not months, weeks, or days.  Do you have the patience to be an investor?

Let’s look at each of these issues, including an update on current economic data points, then formulate a market opinion including a view on interest rates, and finally discuss the sectors we emphasize in our portfolios. We continue to focus on shortages and supply line issues as overcoming them is pivotal to accelerating growth next year and beyond.

The spread of the Delta variant continues to impact global growth. Fortunately, the number of cases here and abroad continues to decline on a 14-day basis, although deaths continue to increase here but are falling abroad. More than 5.83 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a rate of 30.3 million doses per day. In the U.S., 382 million doses have been given so far at an average rate of 787,751 per day. At this pace, it will take six months to cover 75% of the global population, which should be enough for herd immunity. Studies indicate that a booster shot slashes the rate of covid infections and restores waning immunity. We must vaccinate the unvaccinated, including children. Fortunately, there will be ample supplies of doses available over the foreseeable future to vaccinate the world, including booster shots six months after being vaccinated. We also need to worry about the upcoming flu season. Get your flu shots too. While we are learning to live with COVID, the opening will slowly reaccelerate here and abroad as we move through the fall, which will naturally help the global economy.

We expect no change in Fed policy next week or a proposed time frame for tapering to begin. There are tremendous crosscurrents in the economy from a slowdown in travel and leisure, an increase in unemployment claims, a turndown in high-frequency data, and the end of extra unemployment benefits. On the other hand, we have strong capital spending, higher industrial production, and retail sales. The Fed has a dual mandate: reducing unemployment and controlling inflation. The last employment report was a big disappointment while the rate of change in the CPI slowed in August. The jury is out whether higher inflationary pressures will be transitory. Powell thinks so, as do we. He wants the economy to run hot rather than risk taking the punch bowl away too soon. Also, the Fed knows that their policy will have little impact on shortages and supply line issues. If the economy improves over a few months and employment numbers improve again, we expect the Fed to announce tapering in November and begin by the end of the year or early 2022. We expect them to finish tapering by the fall of 2022 and start hiking the fund's rate by mid-2023 if the data points support the move. Remember that tapering and a negative real funds rate are NOT tightening. Finally, Powell seems to be gaining ground in the Senate for his reappointment as Fed Chairman with bipartisan support. Even Chris Dodd and Barney Frank (remember Dodd-Frank?) support Powell’s renomination.

Biden and his party are pushing hard for their vast $3.5 trillion-dollar social infrastructure bill as well as hiking the debt limit. Highlights of the Ways and Means proposal to pay for the bill include:  top capital gains increases to 25% from 20%; maximum corporate rate rises to 26.5% from 21%; increases carried interest holding period to five years from three; cut some estate tax discounts; cuts tax rate for small businesses to 18%; crypto subject to wash rule; and a Medicare surtax on high earners. The package is expected to raise $2 trillion. The Dems are looking for $700 billion in revenue and cost savings from Medicare drug price changes and $600 billion from faster economic growth. Democratic Senator Manchin and other moderates are against this enormous social spending and tax bill, a deal-breaker for the Dems which dooms Biden’s economic agenda. Fortunately, he needs a win as his poll ratings are hitting new lows, so we believe that he will support the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, in the end, without tying it to his $3.5 trillion social infrastructure bill. This bill could be on his desk within a month, which would be a pleasant surprise for the market benefitting specific sectors tied to infrastructure.

Recent data points continue to be a mixed bag: industrial production increased by 0.4% in August despite shutdowns caused by Hurricane Ida; wholesale sales increased 2% in July while inventories rose only 0.6%, bringing the I/S ratio to new lows at 1.25; monthly retail sales increased a surprising 0.7% in August and are up over 15% from a year ago; the CPI increased only 0.3% from July and excluding food and energy the core inflation index rose only 0.1%, the smallest gain since February; and finally, the Phili and Empire Manufacturing surveys were robust. On the other side, unemployment claims rose to 332,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week; small business optimism fell to 99.7, and the August PPI index rose 0.7% and is up 8.3% year over year while the core PPI increased 0.6% and 6.7% vs. last year. Shortages and supply line issues are continuing to penalize sales and production while increasing inflationary pressures. We do not see improvement for both problems until mid-2022, but by then, we see higher sales/production/margins and lower inflation.

While the outlook for the Eurozone, India, Australia, and Japan have improved, China’s economy has not begun to recover from the outbreak of the Delta variant. ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “unprecedented monetary and fiscal aid and more vaccinations have brought the region to a point where it is recovering more rapidly than anticipated and output should reach pre-pandemic levels before the end of the year.” Most Japanese firms see the economy recovering to pre-pandemic levels in FY2022. The Japanese economy grew by 1.9% in the April-June quarter. India’s economy is expected to expand by over 7% this year and more next year, while Australia could expand close to 4% in both years.

On the other hand, China's outlook has slowed over the last month due to the outbreak of the Delta variant and needs additional monetary and fiscal stimulus to reaccelerate. So far, the government has targeted programs for smaller businesses and pledged additional support using local government bonds. We expect the Bank of China to announce another cut in the reserve requirement soon plus additional stimulus programs to boost consumption, which has been hit far more than production. The financial problems of Evergrande, a huge developer in China, will force the Bank of China to inject trillions into the domestic economy to prevent a Lehman moment. Foolishly, the government continues to release industrial commodities from its inventories, including oil, to put downward pressure on inflation just as global demand increases and supplies are tight.

Investment Conclusions

As indicated by the latest bull/bear ratio, market psychology has turned decidedly bearish, which is interestingly a contra-indicator, meaning that it is an excellent time to be nibbling at the market. It helps that inflows continue at a record pace; corporate deals and buybacks are nearing prior peak levels; dividends are increasing at a record pace; we have record excess liquidity in the trillions; the earnings yield compared to 10-year bond yield has never been wider; operating profits/margins/cash flow are increasing to record levels, and the Fed is our friend. Of course, there are negatives. We are worried about COVID, excessive federal spending, taxes that hurt our global competitiveness and investing in America, the buildup in government debt, excessive speculation, the political climate in America, geopolitical risks, and the power of fringe factions.

We maintain a positive view of the financial markets over the next 12-24 months based on an improving global economy as put the coronavirus in the rear view mirror; shortages and supply line issues abate; record operating profits and cash flow; accommodative fiscal and monetary policies; continued record flows from abroad keeping a lid on our interest rates; and trillions of excess liquidities still in the financial system. The preconditions for a market top are not present, but there can always be corrections like now.

As always, it is where you invest that counts. We maintain a balanced approach between growth, mainly technology and value. We like to invest where the government is our friend, so we own sectors that will benefit from the infrastructure bill, increased capital spending, and higher high-tech defense spending.  While we expect the yield curve to slowly steepen, we do not expect the 10-year treasury yield to get much above 1.80% over the next year, which is good for stock valuations.

Markets detest uncertainty, creating opportunities for true investors with a positive longer-term outlook. The key has always been to remain patient, which most can’t do, and always maintain reserves.